Real Madrid's 113 Points and the Data Gap Before the EuroLeague Super Cup

Real Madrid closed out the Costa del Sol tournament with a 113-74 win over Malaga, on the same day Valencia edged Baskonia 93-91 in another EuroLeague pre-season friendly. Two scorelines sitting side by side in the same report, yet telling two very different stories about how EuroLeague clubs are preparing for the new season — and about how we should read pre-season numbers at all.

How to read two scorelines

The first thing I always check when reading a friendly result is minutes played and how many players were used. A 39-point win can be a sign of strength, or a sign that the opponent was testing a second unit. The report gives me no minutes, so I have to treat both results with maximum caution.

Real Madrid scored 113 points. Malencon led with 19, Loubalu-Kabaro had 16, Cabacho 15, Sar 11, Okeeke 10 and Dek 10. Six players in double figures in a small tournament is a signal of roster depth, not yet a signal of absolute strength. Distributed scoring usually comes with coaches rotating constantly — something every team does at this stage.

For Malaga, Kendrick Perry scored 16, Cameron Hunt 15, and Billy Hernangomez posted 11 points with 5 rebounds. That is a three-man offensive core, and the fact that they shared the load in a heavy defeat shows Malaga has no sufficiently strong third option when their two primary scorers are taken away.

The key point: a 39-point friendly win predicts nothing about October.

The rhythm of pre-season preparation

The Costa del Sol tournament takes place in southern Spain, gathering EuroLeague clubs into a short cluster of games. It is a smart organisational model: multiple evaluation games in one location, less travel, less fatigue, more observation minutes for the coaching staff. Real Madrid won their 15th title here — a number that speaks to the continuity of a preparation culture more than to the quality of the current roster.

On another branch, Valencia beat Baskonia 93-91. The game was notable for two former Panathinaikos players: TJ Shorts for Valencia and Kenneth Farid for Baskonia. Two alumni of the same club meeting in opposing colours is normal in the European transfer market, but it raises a question about how teams evaluate players: are they buying skill, or buying familiarity with a proven system?

The 93-91 scoreline tells me something else. Both teams allowed over 90 points. At this stage, coaches usually build the offence before installing the defence. Conceding 91 is not necessarily a hole; it can be a deliberate trade-off by the coaching staff.

What I want to stress is the gap between these two games. Valencia and Baskonia played a tight one, while Real Madrid won by 39. Read quickly and you slot Real Madrid up top and Malaga at the bottom. But the two games had different objectives, different opponents, and different levels of seriousness. Comparing them means comparing two measurements taken with two different rulers.

Data is a mirror; do not get angry when it reflects an ugly truth.

What the data does not say

This is the part I always have to remind myself of. The report provides only points and rebounds. No minutes, no shooting percentages, no efficiency metrics, no data on how teams moved off the ball.

Back in 2026, when I was an assistant analyst in Hai Phong, I wrote a piece criticising Switzerland's overly safe play based on a single touch metric. I ignored the pressure index on the ball carrier. Three days later Switzerland completed a comeback, and I learned my first lesson about the arrogance of data.

I bring it up because it bears directly on how I read this report. A friendly with six players in double figures can be evidence of depth. It can also be evidence that nobody reached true game rhythm. Without minutes and without opponent context, I cannot distinguish the two.

Numbers do not lie, but the people who pick them do.

Most friendly reports publish only points because that is the easiest data to collect. But points are the metric most dependent on context: it depends on the opponent, on pace, and on whether the coach actually wanted to win. Missing those three variables, I treat any conclusion about a team's strength as a hypothesis, not a fact.

The contrarian angle

The popular reading after games like these is to place Real Madrid among the title contenders and Malaga among the relegation battlers. I find the second reading more reasonable than the first, but both are rushed.

Real Madrid head into the EuroLeague Super Cup in a few days. That is the first test against a genuinely strong opponent. A blowout in a small tournament creates no advantage once the ball goes up in a game that counts. Real Madrid's problem last season was never their ability to score against weaker opponents — it was sustaining efficiency against peers.

Malaga is the opposite case. Losing by 39 at home in a tournament they host is a worrying signal, but this team was never built to compete with Real Madrid at this stage. Their real question is: with Perry and Hunt on the perimeter and Billy Hernangomez as a veteran presence, do they have enough options to avoid a long losing run once the season starts?

TJ Shorts is the variable I most want to track. A small guard who has played at the highest level in Europe is now Valencia's primary option. If he dominates the ball without matching efficiency, Valencia will depend on a single point — the kind of dependency European clubs often pay for with a mid-season losing streak.

I once thought I was right. Qatar taught me I was wrong.

What to watch next

I will look at Real Madrid's Super Cup result before drawing any conclusion. A narrow win over a strong opponent carries far more information value than a 39-point win over Malaga.

For Valencia, I want to see TJ Shorts' assist-to-turnover ratio in the first month. For Baskonia, I want to see how long Kenneth Farid takes to adapt to a new system, since a player moving between clubs in the same league tends to carry less adaptation risk — but also fewer surprises.

And for Malaga, I want to see Billy Hernangomez's minutes. A veteran used under 20 minutes a game on a rebuilding team is a signal of a limited role. Above 25 minutes, it is a signal of dependency.

When the arena is empty, only data whispers the truth.

We have two scorelines, one small-tournament title, and very little usable data. That is the nature of pre-season. What I do know is that the coming games will answer more questions than any number currently in our hands. I leave open the possibility that I am wrong, and I am writing my assumptions down now so I can check them later.